On Fault-Tree Analysis : A Possibilistic Approach

Abstract

Top event failure probabilities are normally calculated using the exact values of the components failure probabilities in case of fault-tree analysis. There are some systems where evaluation of failure probabilities of components are very difficult based on the past occurrences because of system environments change. Moreover, failure of component which has never failed before must often be considered. Therefore, an approach based on possibility of failure i.e a fuzzy set defined in probability space has been introduced & finally possibility of failure of top event based on fuzzy fault-tree model is calculated considering the trapezoidal nature possibility of failure of components by developing a generalized computer program.